Posted by
ScottK on Saturday, November 11, 2006 11:07:58 PM
http://time-blog.com/real_clear_politics/2006/11/the_vilsack_juggernaut.htmlOne of the few Democrats who worry me in '08 announced his candidacy on Thursday. Iowa Governor Tom Vilsak announced his candidacy just two days after the Democrats big win on Tuesday. Vilsak is actually a very good candidate. He's a blue dog dem who has the ability to appeal to many Americans. Obviously hoping to piggy back on the Dems success, Vilsak needed to start this early. Currently, her highness Hillary has over ten million saved up from this election cycle and she is keeping her campaign team in place. In order to make up for this deficit in fundraising and campaign organization, Vilsak cannot afford to lose any more time. Thankfully, Hillary's presence in the race will keep Obama from making a run this time around. He does not want to go through a bitter primary that will divide the party especially one against his current colleague. However, many in the Democratic party will be looking for an alternative to Hillary. The smart Dems realize that it is almost impossible to win a national election when 45% of the country despises your candidate. Therefore, if the Dems are smart (and I really hate to give out this free advice to the other side), they will look to an alternative like Vilsak. He is a tremendous politician who has held on to power in a Midwestern state. Hillary would almost automatically lose the South and many Midwestern states. However, Vilsak would have a chance in a state like Arkansas. He would have even more of an opportunity for success in the Midwest. Vilsak would do very well not only in Iowa but also in Missouri, Indiana, Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, and the all-important Ohio. Vilsak would be a very difficult candidate for the Republicans to defeat. In theory, this all sounds great and we'd probably be talking about President Vilsak come January 2009. However, theory is most certainly not reality. Hillary has an incredible fundraising base and her power reaches throughout the Democratic party. If Senator Evan Bayh from Indiana also enters the race, the moderate Democrat vote will likely be split. This would effectively end their bids for the nomination. If you split an already small number of moderates voting in a Democratic primary election, a moderate really has no chance. The liberal vote will then go to Hillary. I'm sure the liberal kooks will also find somebody to support. I wonder if Al Franken is available. I hear he has a few extra hours open in the afternoon these days. Unless the Democrats get smart, they will nominate Hillary and she will lose the Midwest, South, and part of the West. Fortunately, the die-hard party supporters are the ones who vote in the primary and they will nominate Hillary.